Leeds United’s summer transfer window was full of ups and downs as they lost several key players and were able to snap up new recruits to bolster their squad.
After the Whites lost 1-0 to Southampton in the play-off final at Wembley in May, the likes of Georginio Rutter, Archie Gray, Crysencio Summerville, and Glen Kamara all left on permanent deals to join top-flight clubs.
The West Yorkshire outfit finished third in the Championship in the regular season but were unable to secure promotion via the play-offs, which resulted in a number of their top performers moving on.
Those exits did allow the club to swoop for the likes of Joe Rodon, Largie Ramazani, Manor Solomon, Ao Tanaka, Joe Rothwell, and Jayden Bogle, among others, though, to strengthen the playing squad.
Leeds did not, however, decide to strengthen their goalkeeping options, beyond the addition of Alex Cairns as a veteran third-choice, after Illan Meslier and Karl Darlow spent the 2023/24 campaign as the first and second-choice.
You could argue that their decision not to bolster that position could turn to be a mistake, as Meslier’s form in the Championship over the past 14 months or so has been far from perfect.
Illan Meslier's Championship form
The French shot-stopper was the club’s number one in the Premier League for three years before they were relegated from the top-flight in the 2022/23 campaign, as the goalkeeper let in 12.4 more than expected based on the post-shot xG value of the efforts on his goal.
Relegation to the Championship provided the players with a chance to dominate matches and showcase the best of their abilities whilst winning games on a regular basis, rather than scrapping it out at the bottom of the table fighting for survival.
For Meslier, however, it meant that he faced fewer shots and did not have as many chances to show off his shot-stopping quality, which meant that his mistakes were far more noticeable.
The 24-year-old dud ranked within the bottom 31% of goalkeepers in the division for percentage of crosses claimed (4.9%) and ranked within the bottom 36% for post-shot xG minus goals allowed per 90 (0.07).
Meslier ended the season with 3.1 more goals conceded than expected based on the post-shot xG of the efforts against him, which shows that the Frenchman underperformed as a shot-stopper whilst also being underwhelming when it came to coming off his line to collect crosses.
This season, the left-footed titan ranks within the bottom 28% of goalkeepers for post-shot xG minus goals allowed per 90 (0.10) and his colossal error against Sunderland plays a part in that.
As you can see in the clip above, Meslier had a howler against the Black Cats in the 97th minute on Friday night, and his error cost his team two points at the Stadium of Light.
The French colossus needs to improve to show that he can be a reliable shot-stopper for Leeds moving forward, as he is now in his fifth full season as the number one and is still making plenty of mistakes.
Things could have been so different for the Whites, though, as they once had a goalkeeper who is now better, and more valuable, than Meslier – Elia Caprile.
Elia Caprile's Leeds career
In January 2020, midway through the club’s promotion-winning season under Marcelo Bielsa, Leeds swooped to sign the teenager from Chievo Verona.
Caprile went on to keep five clean sheets in 19 matches for the U21 side at Thorp Arch before joining Pro Patria in the third tier of Italian football on loan in the 2021/22 campaign.
The young stopper kept 12 clean sheets in 36 league matches during that loan spell but that was not enough to convince Victor Orta or Bielsa that he had a long-term future at the club.
They cashed in on the promising talent in the summer of 2022, as Serie B outfit Bari came in and secured his services for an undisclosed fee, which Transfertmarkt reported to be around €1.75m (£1.5m).
In the subsequent season, Meslier conceded 12.4 more goals than expected based on post-shot xG as Leeds were relegated from the Premier League and Caprile kept 14 clean sheets and saved 77% of the shots against him in 37 Serie B games.
Where Are They Now
Your star player or biggest flop has left the club but what are they doing in the present day? This article is part of Football FanCast's Where Are They Now series.
His form for the second division outfit earned him a big move in the summer of 2023, a year on from his exit from Elland Road, to Serie A champions Napoli, and he has developed into a player Daniel Farke would love to have in his team.
Elia Caprile's current market value
At the time of writing (07/10/2024), Football Transfers has the Italian goalkeeper’s current Expected Transfer Value (xTV) at a whopping €16.7m (£13.7m).
Meanwhile, Meslier, who was backed by the club instead of Caprile, has a current xTV of €15.4m (£12.8m), which means that the former Whites man is currently worth more than the Frenchman.
The Napoli star, who was once lauded as a “superstar” by scout Jacek Kulig, has made three appearances in the Serie A so far this season for Antonio Conte’s side, saving 75% of the shots against him, after impressing enough on loan with Empoli last term to earn a place in the first-team squad.
Appearances
23
44
Save success rate
75%
68%
Saves per game
3.5
1.9
Successful run-outs per game
0.4
0.4
Goals prevented
0.96
-4.49
As you can see in the table above, Caprile prevented 0.96 goals in 23 appearances for Empoli in the Italian top-flight during the 2023/24 campaign.
Whereas, Meslier struggled at times in the Championship, letting in 4.49 more than expected, in his 44 appearances for Leeds under Farke.
The Empoli loanee also ranked within the top 11% of goalkeepers in the Serie A for percentage of crosses stopped (7.9%), whilst Meslier – as aforementioned – ranked in the bottom 31% for percentage of crosses stopped (4.9%) in the league last term.
These statistics show that Caprile significantly outperformed the Frenchman as both a shot-stopper and a dominant box presence, whilst playing at a higher level.
Therefore, Farke would love to have the 23-year-old Italian available to him as he appears to be an upgrade on Meslier, who the club kept hold of whilst allowing the former Chievo youngster to leave.
Leeds signed Meslier instead of a GK who Messi now thinks is "the best"
The Whites once wanted to sign a goalkeeper who now stars in the Premier League.
ByDan Emery Oct 6, 2024
This is why Bielsa and Orta messed up by selling the youngster to Bari as they did not give him a chance to prove himself at Elland Road. If they had, Leeds may have had a better goalkeeper available to them right now.